Ready or Not

The southwest monsoon has stumbled at the starting line, with rainfall nearly 43 per cent below normal by late June. With a strong El Niño expected to intensify in the coming months, India is staring at the possibility of another drought year, rising temperatures and lower agricultural output. The warning signs are flashing well before the festive season.

Ironically, while large parts of the country are waiting for rain, the Sikkim Himalayas have witnessed considerably more rainfall this year than during the same period last year. That is hardly reassuring. Climate change is increasingly replacing predictable weather with extremes—where one region battles drought while another grapples with cloudbursts, landslides and flash floods. Excess rain in the mountains does not guarantee water security or food security; it often destroys roads, crops and livelihoods.

For Sikkim, the threat is even more immediate. The state's dependence on NH10 as its primary lifeline has long exposed a dangerous vulnerability. Every monsoon brings landslides, road collapses and traffic disruptions, turning the supply chain from Siliguri and beyond into an unpredictable gamble. Essential commodities, medicines, LPG cylinders and fuel supplies are frequently delayed, leaving citizens and businesses anxious.

This year, the uncertainty is compounded by geopolitical turmoil. Although the worst of the Middle East conflict may have eased, volatility in crude oil and petroleum markets remains. Any disruption in fuel and petroleum supplies directly affects transport costs and the movement of goods into a landlocked Himalayan state.

Climate change and global conflicts are no longer distant headlines; they are local governance challenges. Sikkim cannot afford to react only after supermarket shelves begin to empty or petrol pumps run dry. The state must immediately build strategic reserves of essential commodities, strengthen fuel storage, improve warehouse capacity and create contingency plans for prolonged NH10 disruptions. Exploring alternative connectivity routes should become an urgent priority rather than an election promise.

Resilience is built before a crisis, not during one. For Sikkim, preparedness is no longer optional—it is the only insurance against an increasingly uncertain future.