Who Is to Blame for the 2023 GLOF?

YOUGAL SAPKOTA

The devastating 2023 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) that tore through Sikkim is fast becoming an old story. The initial storm of national news has passed, central relief funds have been distributed, and the public memory has begun to fade. For many, it's a familiar cycle: a tragedy occurs, some relief provides a temporary balm, and taxpayer money, much like the Chungthang Dam itself, is washed away as people are forced to move on. But to let this disaster recede into history is to ignore the uncomfortable truths buried beneath the silt.This was not merely an event that happened, it was an event that was arguably allowed to happen. Behind the tragic loss of life and resources lies a disturbing trail of ignored warnings, questionable planning, and a cascade of decisions that prioritized development over safety. It's time to ask the critical questions that were silenced by the roar of the floodwaters.This article will delve into the hidden truths behind the disaster by seeking answers to four fundamental questions:

1. Why was a clear, scientific prediction of this exact GLOF, published two years earlier and highlighting the need for an Early Warning System, completely ignored by the authorities?
2. Was the catastrophic risk of a GLOF event ever seriously and transparently considered during the Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) for the Chungthang Dam and other projects?
3. Does the Teesta River truly possess the ecological carrying capacity to sustain the immense pressure of large hydropower dams built in its path?
4. Beyond promises and reports, are the concerned departments genuinely prepared with concrete, on-the-ground measures for the next inevitable disaster?

By breaking down the evidence surrounding these issues, this article will highlight the chain of events and systemic failures that led to the catastrophe. It will lay out the facts and allow you, the reader, to decide: Was the Sikkim flood an unavoidable natural disaster, or was it a predictable, man-made catastrophe born from a staggering degree of negligence?

Ignored research and reports

The devastating Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) that struck Sikkim was not an unforeseen catastrophe,it was a scientifically modelled and predicted disaster. In a 2021 research paper, two years before the event, Dr. AshimSattar and his collaborators published a chillingly accurate forecast of the very GLOF scenario that unfolded from South Lhonak Lake. Their work was not a vague possibility but a specific warning, highlighting that settlements like Chungthang were at high risk and that floodwaters could reach depths of 20-30 meters with destructive velocities. The research was a clear and urgent call to action. The article explicitly stated that "GLOF risk mitigation in relation to South Lhonak and other critical lakes in the basin is of utmost importance⁽³⁾," especially after the construction of the dam at Chungthang. The study provided the base data needed to create effective risk management plans and, crucially, to design an Early Warning System (EWS) that could have saved countless lives. This vital piece of scientific information, published and publicly available, was a roadmap to preventing the exact tragedy that occurred. Despite the precision of the warning, it appears to have been tragically ignored by the competent authorities and concerned departments. While research articles are a primary source of critical information, there was a clear failure to translate this scientific foresight into proactive policy and on-the-ground action. The fact that GLOF studies are being commissioned now, after the loss of so many lives and widespread destruction, is a reactive measure that highlights a profound lapse in governance. The tools to mitigate this disaster were available; the will to implement them was absent. The community is now left to hope that this devastating event forces immediate and lasting change. The implementation of a robust Early Warning System must be the top priority to ensure that the next potential GLOF does not lead to another tragedy. However, this is also a moment that demands accountability. We must ask why such a clear, data-driven warning from our own scientific community was nullified by inaction. The people of Sikkim deserve more than just post-disaster studies; they deserve a system that listens to science and acts to protect its citizens before tragedy strikes.

Flawed hydro economics

Sikkim's largest and most expensive hydropower project, Teesta III, was plagued by massive delays and cost overruns.Initially estimated at $683 million, its final cost more than doubled to $1.69 billion, and it was completed five years behind schedule in 2017.The project was awarded to a consortium led by the Athena Group through its special company, Teesta Urja Limited (TUL). The selection was controversial because the state cabinet had previously rejected a government committee's recommendation for a different company for reasons that were not made public. According to a report by India's national auditor (CAG), Athena India was a brand-new company with no prior experience in building hydro projects when it was awarded the contract. The report criticized the government for not verifying the consortium leader's qualifications. As per the deal, the state government of Sikkim took a 26% equity stake in the project.

Rivers of Light, Villages in Darkness

The state uses its powerful rivers to create a lot of electricity from big dams. But instead of this power going to the people who live in Sikkim, most of it is sold to other states. This leaves many of Sikkim’s own villages facing frequent power cuts, often for many hours a day.To build these huge power projects, local people had to give up a lot. Many had to leave the land where their families had lived for generations. The rivers, which are very important to their daily life and culture, were blocked and changed forever. This damages the environment and can cause more dangerous landslides, but the people were told it was necessary for a better future.The main reason for this problem is that the big power companies have deals to sell the electricity to other, richer states. These deals are worth a lot of money, so the needs of Sikkim's own people are often ignored. It’s incredibly unfair that a child in a Sikkim’s village can't do their homework at night because there's no light, while the dam near their home is busy sending electricity to a big city hundreds of miles away.It’s hard to point a finger at just one group. The problem is complicated. Part of the blame might be on the state's power department, which may not have the right wires and equipment to deliver electricity to all the remote villages. Another part of the blame is on the big dam companies, who are more focused on making money from their contracts than on helping the local communities.Although 12% of the power produced are shared¹ with the state but problem still persist. It's a mix of poor management and a lack of care for the people.In the end, this is a story of a broken promise. The people of Sikkim were told that if they allowed their land and rivers to be used, they would get development and basic needs like 24/7 electricity. But that hasn't happened. They have been left with the problems, like environmental damage, while the main benefit the electricity is sent somewhere else. It is only fair that the people who make the biggest sacrifices are the first to enjoy the rewards.

A Call for Accountability and Future Action

The evidence presented paints a clear picture. The 2023 GLOF was not a singular event but the catastrophic climax of a story of systemic failure. The decision to ignore clear scientific warnings from research was not an isolated mistake, it was consistent with a governance model that greenlit the massively over-budget Teesta III project with an inexperienced developer and failed to deliver even basic electricity to the very people who sacrificed their land. Each thread ,the ignored science, the flawed economics, and the social injustice, weaves together to show a system that has long prioritized questionable development over scientific warnings and citizen welfare.So, who is to blame? The answer is not a single person or department but a profound and multifaceted failure of governance. Blame lies with the authorities who dismissed credible science, the policymakers who pursued a flawed hydro-economic model at any cost, and a system that has repeatedly treated the people and environment of Sikkim as collateral damage. The roaring floodwaters of the Teesta were not just an act of nature; they were the inevitable result of a development path that was both unsustainable and unjust.Moving forward cannot mean moving on. True recovery demands accountability, beginning with a transparent investigation into why the 2021 warning was shelved. It requires an urgent, independent re-evaluation of every dam on the Teesta, placing ecological reality above contractual obligations. Most importantly, it necessitates the immediate implementation of a comprehensive Early Warning System and a new framework where the safety and prosperity of the Sikkimese people are non-negotiable priorities. The 2023 GLOF was not an unavoidable natural disaster. It was a man-made catastrophe born from negligence. The question now is whether the lessons paid for in lives and livelihoods will finally be learned or not.

References-

1.      https://power.sikkim.gov.in/visitor/projectsdata/22

2.      https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/4/18/a-flash-flood-and-a-quiet-sale-highlight-indias-sikkims-hydro-problems

3.      Sattar, A., Goswami, A., Kulkarni, A. V., Emmer, A., Haritashya, U. K., Allen, S., ... &Huggel, C. (2021). Future glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya. Geomorphology, 388, 107783.

(Yougal Sapkota is a scholar at Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. Views are personal. Email: yooglesaps@gmail.com)