Middle East: Post-War Fatal Scenario

Alok k. Shrivastava,Ex- Chief Secretary, Sikkim

Bereft of any bias, it can be said that there is finally a match — not a mismatch — in the perpetually disturbed Middle East. Iran, a vast nation of 90 million, with meticulous preparation, modern arms and ammunition, and strategic perseverance, waited long to deliver the most devastating military strike against Israel (population 8 million) in modern history. This occurred despite U.S. forces in the region — spread across 30 bases — being on high alert. Even the latest U.S. military aid worth $510 million to Israel may not alter the outcome. Iran has a defense treaty with Russia, which in turn shares similar ties with China. Iran is expected to launch 2,000 more missiles in the coming days.

Rebuilding by Israel

Israel, while cautioning its civilians about Iran’s missile capabilities (which can reach any part of Israel within 7 minutes), has continued its violent suppression of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip during its war with Iran. Israel paid a heavy price — an estimated $12 billion — for initiating strikes against Iran, driven by U.S. instigation, military intelligence, and arms support. In blindly following American imperialism, Israel forgot its own aggressive record: it has attacked seven regional countries on 25 occasions over the past 12 years. This plan began in 2001. Not all U.S. interventions have ended in success — as seen in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. Ukraine may be no different.

The Threat from HHH

Hamas, Hezbollah, and lately the Houthis of Yemen have kept both the U.S. and Israel on edge. While Hezbollah and the Houthis have never remained dormant, the brutal October 7, 2023, Hamas assault — killing 1,200 Israelis and taking 250 hostages — exposed the vulnerability of the U.S.-Israel axis.

Every grievous and inhuman assault on Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, both before and after October 2023, now draws global sympathy — even from within Israel and among Jewish communities worldwide. Despite a so-called ceasefire between Israel and Iran, resistance continues.

It is now widely said that Iran has become Israel’s fiercest competitor since the 1948 Arab-Israeli war — 77 years ago — or even since the 1967 war if the latter is taken as reference.

Israel’s Past Wars: In Brief

· 1967 War (June 5–10): Israel fought Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. It gained control of Sinai, the Old City of Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza Strip. Under Jordanian rule, Israelis were expelled from Jerusalem. The victory allowed Jews to reunite their capital and return to the Western Wall — their holiest site.

· 1973 War (October 6): Egypt, Syria, and Jordan attacked Israel to regain lost territory. Israel defended successfully. Since then, Egypt and Syria have remained quiet on the Israeli front.

Egypt, along with Qatar, the U.S., and UAE, is now part of a crucial committee mediating the release of 250 Israeli hostages and seeking dignity for Palestinians in Gaza.

Serious Issues in Gaza Strip

Gaza was seized from Egypt after the 1967 war. Israel established settlements and imposed military rule. It has since become an "open prison."

With an area of just 365 sq. km., Gaza's 2.1 million residents face dire shortages of basic amenities. Movement is restricted; only exceptional cases can travel to the West Bank.
Though 90% of homes have been attacked by Israel, people continue to live in extreme poverty. Healthcare is almost inaccessible, and 80% of the youth are unemployed.

Israel’s Four Objectives in Gaza

Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza reportedly has four goals:

1. To destroy Hamas (militant wing of PLO)

2. To free Israeli hostages taken on October 7, 2023

3. To ensure Gaza is no longer a threat

4. To return displaced residents of North Israel

So far, Israel has fought five wars with Hamas: in 2008–09, 2012, 2014, 2021, and 2024.

Historical Context: Palestine

Palestine was inhabited by Palestinians before British colonial powers settled Jews there in May 1948. A country called “Palestine” never formally existed; originally a Canaanite settlement, the region was under Egyptian control for 350 years before falling to the Assyrians in 730 B.C.

Though administered by the British, Palestine became a geopolitical vacuum filled by U.S. interests and Israeli ambitions. The UN proposed a 1947 partition plan, but it failed due to the 1948 war.

While Yasser Arafat lived, Palestine’s voice was heard — even at the UN, where they once sought full membership as the 194th state. A U.S. veto crushed that hope. Today, 22 nations, including India (since 1988), recognize the PLO. Of the G20 nations, 11 are among them.

12-Day War: Highlights

· June 12: Israel launched missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Operation "Rising Lion" commenced. The U.S. began regional troop movements.

· Days 2–3: Iran and Israel exchanged strikes. Iran’s casualty count: 406 dead, 654 injured. Israel: 14 dead, 390 injured.

· Iran called on Gulf countries to press Trump for de-escalation. Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and Haifa.

· Trump demanded Iran’s surrender. Tehran began evacuations. Israel bombed Natanz enrichment facility.

· Russian President Putin warned of nuclear catastrophe if the U.S. escalated further.

· IAEA warned against nuclear site strikes. Houthis resumed attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea.

· The U.S. deployed B2 bombers, striking Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran retaliated by attacking a major U.S. base in Qatar (80 dead). Russia backed Iran.

· President Trump unilaterally announced a ceasefire. Iran responded with final strikes on Israeli targets.

· Israel’s Ambassador to India later confirmed that the ceasefire was brokered in coordination with Israel.

Trump's Controversial Intervention

Trump declared a ceasefire mid-conflict without U.S. Congressional approval. Legally, only Congress can declare war. Lawmakers have since demanded full disclosure of military actions and Iran’s uranium stockpiles.

Ayatollah Khamenei later declared that Iran’s strike on the U.S. Al Udeid base — killing 80 soldiers — was a “slap in the face” to America.

218 Gazans Killed Amid Crisis

Israel killed 218 Palestinians in three phases during the war. Aid trucks permitted entry after 3.5 months were often delayed or blocked. Israeli soldiers reportedly threw supplies on the roads to cause further distress.

The Palestinian ambassador to the UN stated: since the March 2025 ceasefire was broken, 1,300 children have been killed and 4,000 injured. In two years, 60,000 Palestinians have died, 120,000 injured, and 90% of homes destroyed.

UNICEF and other aid agencies have described unbearable conditions: starving children and mothers grieving lifeless bodies. The UN Secretary-General condemned U.S.-backed aid operations as unsafe, where civilians are killed while seeking food.

Summing Up

· This was Israel’s biggest military loss; real damage is likely underreported.

· Iranian strikes targeted civilian and research facilities, while Israel focused on strategic sites.

· Accusations of ceasefire violations persist from both sides.

· Gaza’s suffering continues, despite global protests — even by Jews.

· The U.S. has supplied $510 million in arms to Israel.

· Iran has resumed repairs at three nuclear sites.

· Iran has shifted to Chinese internet infrastructure, citing speed and security.

· Nuclear talks with the U.S. are stalled; IAEA confirms “enormous damage” to facilities.

· Iran has received support from Russia, China, North Korea, Turkey, and Pakistan.

· The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical choke point, with potential global economic consequences.

· Political spin cannot ensure victory. Only peaceful, lasting initiatives can.

· There may be delays — but it won’t be dark forever.