Roadblock ahead?

Donald Trump’s return to the White House raises serious concerns about the United States’ stance on climate change, particularly as global leaders prepare for COP29, the UN’s annual climate summit. Trump’s skepticism toward climate science, coupled with his campaign promise to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, poses a considerable obstacle to both emissions reduction and financial support for developing nations in their climate adaptation efforts. The U.S., as the world’s largest economy and second-largest carbon emitter, has historically played a critical role in propelling global climate progress. Trump's renewed presence in the Oval Office risks upending this momentum at a crucial time for climate action.

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. championed significant climate initiatives, most notably the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which fuelled substantial investment in clean energy projects nationwide. While no Republicans voted in favour of the IRA, red states have been among the greatest beneficiaries, receiving funds and job creation opportunities from renewable projects. Consequently, dismantling the IRA’s clean energy incentives would be politically unpopular and logistically challenging, even with Trump’s push for increased oil and gas production. Nonetheless, his administration’s rollback efforts could slow the U.S. energy transition, sending mixed signals to the international community.

Trump’s climate stance starkly contrasts with the evolving reality of renewable energy economics. Since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, global clean energy investments have surged by 60%, reaching nearly $2 trillion annually, almost double the amount allocated to fossil fuel projects. The economic appeal of renewable technology and growing popular support for clean energy provide a buffer against Trump’s pro-fossil fuel agenda. Still, his influence could dampen domestic and international climate ambitions, especially if his policies encourage other nations to reduce their commitments.

Globally, however, climate action persists despite U.S. leadership fluctuations. When Trump exited the Paris Agreement in 2017, global climate efforts endured, bolstered by leaders like the European Union and China. The EU continues to prioritize a green economic agenda, even amid shifting political landscapes, while China has strategically positioned itself as a climate leader to support its policy and economic objectives. If other nations remain committed to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, Trump’s actions may cause setbacks, but they need not derail global climate progress.

Ultimately, the extent of damage from Trump’s potential climate inaction will depend on how the world responds. If countries resist Trump’s regressive influence and intensify their climate commitments, the impact may be contained. However, if his return inspires a global trend of weakened ambition, the consequences could be severe and enduring. While Trump’s administration may slow the U.S.’s climate momentum, the global climate movement has shown resilience. Trump’s policies alone cannot halt the shift toward a more sustainable future, though they certainly threaten to delay it.