Will The Poll Outcome Herald Change InNepal ?

ALOK K SHRIVASTAVA

 At last, the long-neglected people of Nepal appear to have found what they were seeking. A stable government now seems within reach after the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by Rabi Lamichhane and Balendra Shah, secured an almost two-thirds majority. For a party barely four years old, this marks a remarkable, landslide victory—driven by strong social media mobilisation and substantial support from the Nepalese diaspora.

“Nepal rejects the old, but the new may be overstated,” observed one Indian daily. Kathmandu-based political analyst Yubraj Ghimire also cautions that despite the mandate, RSP could face a difficult road ahead.

Old versus New

Nepal’s political shift mirrors developments in Sri Lanka, where voters gave a new political formation a decisive chance. In contrast, Bangladesh signalled a return to older political forces, albeit under unusual electoral conditions where a major party was barred. In all three countries, elections followed periods of unrest and violence, yet voter turnout in Nepal and Bangladesh surprised observers, touching nearly 60%. RSP secured an impressive 47.8% of the popular vote, though several Indian states have recently recorded higher participation.

Meanwhile, in Myanmar, the military continues to defy electoral mandates in favour of the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi, underscoring the region’s varied democratic trajectories.

Rise of Rastriya Swatantra Party

The RSP, once an ally of the Maoist government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, was formed only in July 2022. Yet under the leadership of Balendra Shah—an engineer-turned-rapper and Mayor of Kathmandu—it has made a striking impact. His actions against encroachments, unlicensed businesses, and poor urban management have earned widespread public approval.

The party seized its moment during the peak of youth-led protests in September 2025, a movement that ultimately led to the fall of four-time Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli. RSP’s ability to channel this public anger into electoral success proved decisive.

Term of Justice (Mrs) Sushila Karki

Following Oli’s resignation amid nationwide protests, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki assumed charge as interim Prime Minister. Tasked with restoring normalcy and conducting elections within six months, she fulfilled her mandate efficiently. The March 5 elections were conducted peacefully, with no major complaints.

Under Article 84 of Nepal’s Constitution, the 275-member House of Representatives comprises 165 directly elected members through the First-Past-The-Post system and 110 through proportional representation. RSP won 125 direct seats and, with proportional allocation, secured a total of 182 seats—marking the largest single-party victory in Nepal’s history. This raises hopes of ending the long era of unstable coalition governments.

Election Results

Article 84 of the Constitution of Nepal provides for a 275-seat Pratinidhi Sabha (House of Representatives). Of these, 165 members are elected directly from single-member constituencies through the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, while the remaining 110 seats are filled through a nationwide proportional representation (PR) system based on party lists.

Out of the 165 direct seats, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) secured a decisive mandate by winning 125 seats. The Nepali Congress, once a dominant force, managed to win only 38 seats. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) won 25 seats, while the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) secured 17.

With the addition of proportional representation seats, RSP’s final tally rose to 182 out of 275, marking a clear and commanding majority.

However, the future political alignment of 32 Members of Parliament from eight Madhesh districts will need close observation.

This result represents the biggest victory by a single party in Nepal’s history. It raises the possibility that the country may finally emerge from the long and unstable era of coalition governments, with single-party rule becoming a reality for the first time since the beginning of popular elections in 2008.

The scale of the electoral exercise was itself remarkable. Over 3,400 candidates from 68 parties contested the elections, and conducting polls in a country where nearly 80% of the terrain is mountainous was a formidable challenge. Vote counting took a full week—still an improvement over the 2022 elections, which required nearly two weeks.

India’s View

Given its deep historical, cultural, and economic ties, India is closely watching developments in Nepal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally congratulated Balendra Shah and Rabi Lamichhane, reiterating India’s commitment to mutual cooperation. However, such diplomatic language remains largely routine.

The challenges ahead for Shah are formidable: entrenched corruption, unemployment, economic stagnation, and a heavy debt burden. Ambitious goals—such as institutional reforms and significantly expanding power generation—will test the government’s capacity.

While the electorate has delivered a decisive mandate, Nepal’s political history is marked by high expectations and uneven delivery. This time, with a strong youth-driven wave behind it, the RSP has a rare opportunity.

Whether this moment signals genuine transformation—or merely another cycle of promise and disillusionment—remains to be seen.

Expectations & Responsibilities Ahead

Shah faces an uphill task of rebuilding a virtually devastated country burdened by high levels of corruption, unemployment, a near-stagnant economy, and a heavy debt load. In addition, ambitious goals—such as the abolition of party-affiliated student unions, trade unions, and civil servant associations, as well as achieving a target of 30,000 MW of power generation within a decade—must be addressed. The latter should ideally align with successful India-assisted initiatives in Bhutan.

Beyond policy goals, the average voter continues to aspire for political stability and an end to the dominance of entrenched political elites. However, Nepal’s past has been marked by high promises and poor delivery, often dashing public expectations. This time, with a clear and decisive mandate in favour of RSP, there is hope that change will not only come, but endure.

With youth acting as catalysts of change across many nations in recent years, expectations from the Balendra Shah government are understandably high. Even if the path ahead proves uneven, his relative newness to politics may well turn out to be an advantage.

Whether this moment signals genuine transformation—or merely another cycle of promise and disillusionment—remains to be seen.