Bangladesh: Always Prone To Threats

ALOK K. SHRIVASTAVA, IAS (R)

Atal Bihari Vajpayee, former PM was right in saying 'you can change your friends but not neighbours'. It was true during his life time and cannot be negated even now.

Gradually India's neighbours are being cajoled to display latent or manifest hostility towards it. Latest neighbour being Bangladesh, a country carved out of Pakistan with Indian support. Erstwhile East Pakistan became Bangladesh because West Pakistan did not allow Awami League to form government in East Pakistan, despite their win in all the seats. East Pakistanis rebelled against  West Pakistan Army. They were led by Mukti Vahini, trained by BSF and Indian Army. Large scale migration of people into India was also witnessed, compelling India to impose a Refugee tax.

Bangladesh is a low lying deltaic country having 310 rivers in an area of 147,570 Sq.kms. Of a total population of 170 millions, 90.4 % are Muslims, 8.2 % are Hindus( 28% in 1971), 0.7 % Buddhists and 0.6 % are Christians. One million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar staying in Coxbazar District for seven years have increased the burden of country.

Regime Changes Frequent

Bangladeshis were heaving a sigh of relief after getting liberated from Pakistan. But peace and amity proved a short lived affair. Before Bangbandhu Mujibur Rahman could streamline the country, he was assassinated alongwith family members & close associates. Instead of democratic set up, the country had Army rule atleast thrice. It had 13 Presidents and 10 Prime Ministers thus far. Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh National Party became Prime Minister twice while last P.M. Sheikh Hasina of Awami League had this distinction thrice

Protest of May-July, 2024

Current round of protests in Bangladesh sprung from resentment over a quota system that saw 56 % of government jobs reserved for various group's including 30% for  descendants of freedom fighters. Protest got accelerated in June '24 in response to Supreme Court of Bangladesh reinstating a 30% quota, thus reversing decision of government in response to the 2018 Bangladesh quota reform movement.

Main Reasons

Religious polarisation has taken place in the country leading to political instability. Side by side, rise in unemployment and prices angered the common man. Thus protests against quota system in government jobs, in no time, evolved into anti-government demonstrations. Both Police and Army appeared reluctant to enforce law and order. Hindus were a soft target, so, violence against them intensified.

It has been also observed that Hasina government was harsh in crushing the students. Also it was gathered that key issues -education, health and employment were ignored by her government. Opposition parties took full advantage of resentment factor which led to downfall of Hasina Government in just 45 minutes on 5th August. She had no option but to seek refuge in India.

Impact On Both Countries

India always had close geographic and economic ties with Bangladesh.

It is not that only Bangladesh is going to suffer in the changed political situation. Immediate impact over curtailment of exports has already happened especially in Garment and textile sector which not only contributed to 85 % of exports of Bangladesh but Indians too are suffering as 25% of these units are owned by them.

Also bi-lateral trade between two countries is bound to be affected as Bangladesh was largest trade partner of India in the sub continent.

Transport Sector

Transport sector in India has already suffered badly as Bangladesh was a huge market for Indian goods. Prior to unrest, about one thousand trucks would go to Bangladesh daily as opposed to 125 trucks from Nepal. More than 1300 trucks from India are reportedly stranded in Bangladesh. Negative fallout of it is bound to be seen on Siliguri, Guwahati and Kolkata markets.

Road and Rail corridor

Road and Rail corridor to and from North East through Bangladesh shall have a setback as distances had reduced considerably as a result of rapid strides made during the Hasina regime. Investment by India for creating and improving infra structure in Bangladesh was also huge.

Security Matters

There is also going to be loss of a key partner for India specifically in regard to suppressing terrorism in India. Useful intelligence about Islamic and Assam terrorists may not be shared. Security concerns of India may also increase. In the post-5th August situation, people of Bangladesh think India as an ally of Hasina, hence, it may further strain relations with India.

USA Factor

Policy of USA towards Bangladesh is also likely to change. While outgoing President Joe Biden refrained from making comment on changed situation in Bangladesh, President elect Donald Trump has expressed concern and sympathies with Hindus in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina was also quick in conveying congratulations to him upon his victory.

Issue of Hindus

It’s going to be a risky situation for Hindus in Bangladesh. In the event of escalation in Islamist extremism, Hindus will be further threatened. Already many Hindu temples have been attacked and Hindus have faced over two thousand attacks since 4th August.Durga Puja celebrations recently were also a low key affair.

To add further insult Bangladesh's Attorney General has advocated for constitutional changes including removal of term secular, given that 90 % of country's population comprised of Muslims.

Recent Developments

On 10th November Bangladesh yet again became tense as a planned protest rally by Awami League in Dhaka was thwarted. It was learnt that activists of Anti-discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) aggressively hunted for Sheikh Hasina supporters. Also activists of BNP and  Jamaat-e-Islami party filled up much of space in Dhaka streets. Awami League stated that many of their supporters were detained.

Bangladesh Interim government headed by Mohammad Yunus, Nobel laureate and Senior Adviser, is going to seek assistance of Interpol to repatriate Sheikh Hasina and other' fugitives' to face trial for  alleged crimes against humanity. Hasina and her party leaders face accusations of ordering brutal suppression of the ADSM resulting in several casualties in June and July 2024. As per Md.Yunus, 753 persons were killed and thousands injured in protests. These were considered crimes against humanity, thus a genocide. Over 60 complains have been filed against Hasina and her party leaders with the International Crimes Tribunal(ICT).Tribunal was incidentally created by Sheikh Hasina in 2010 and following its judgements, six leaders of Jamaat -e - Islami and BNP were executed.

After departure of Sheikh Hasina,its a fluid political situation in Bangladesh. Return of radical Islamist forces, such as, Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP are already threatening country's secular governance system. Further rise in Islamic extremism will increase threat quotient of Hindu community.

CONCLUSION

Bangladesh is in bad shape both from polity and economy points of view as also threats to its social fabric. No longer its GDP is growing at a rate of 6%. Once thriving garment industry had setbacks in the last five months leading to disruption in export flow.

As such, 2024 has been a year of decline for readymade garments especially to U.S. Global fashion brands - H&M, Zara and Decathlon are shifting orders away from Bangladesh. Issues like non payment of regular wages and over time have emerged. As 183 garment factories have been closed, it’s a gain situation for Indian garment producers.

On international front, it is being felt that China may increase its influence over Bangladesh by offering lucrative deals to the new interim regime, similar to what it has given in Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Maldives.

India, so far, is maintaining a cautious approach, closely monitoring the situation in Bangladesh while adopting a wait and watch strategy. India, at the same time, should bolster existing  security measures along 4,156 kms long border with Bangladesh as also in locations with significant Bangladeshi expatriate population to address potential spillover effects. Also India needs to closely monitor both China and Pakistan who could exploit present vulnerable situation in Bangladesh.

(Views are personal. Email: alok.secyskm@gmail.com)