Thursday, Mar 05, 2026 22:00 [IST]
Last Update: Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 16:23 [IST]
History repeats itself. It has been said, and it may be true. But when Uncle Sam, in a new avatar, desires — rather directs — history is repeated with an aim to change geography.
For a number of years, ever since the USA assumed the erstwhile imperialist role of the U.K., a large number of regimes were targeted. A few maintained distance, while others did not surrender but allowed their territory for U.S. air and naval bases. Gulf nations occupy this “coveted category.” Those who did not toe the line lost their leaders one after another, while some are still losing and struggling.
Earlier, these events happened in broad daylight. Now killings and kidnappings occur at dead of night or very early in the morning.
Hit & Run to Hang On
In such a scheme of things, it is not only hit and run; U.S. diplomats and forces also stay back to protect their long-term vested interests. They get land allotted under the garb of temporary bases, which have a propensity to become permanent over time.
Setbacks in a Few
Even after massive setbacks and movements leading to the vacation of such bases in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the U.S. still has over 19 air and naval bases in a number of Middle Eastern countries, prominently in Qatar (the biggest one), Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. These host a gigantic force of about 40,000 troops. In addition, there are reports of interest in bases near Mauritius and on an island in Bangladesh.
Current War in Retrospect
If we turn our attention to the 12-day June 2025 war between Israel and Iran — a fresh war allegedly instigated and spearheaded by Israel with U.S. backing — eight nations have reportedly been attacked after a gap of eight months. Multi-pronged attacks by Israel against Iran, Lebanon, and Hezbollah were expected. However, in the changed situation, Iran, while retaliating, has hit eight Islamic countries through missiles and drones. Is it not beyond comprehension?
The silence of Hamas and the Houthis of Yemen, staunch backers and beneficiaries of Iran, so far cannot be understood. They may speak soon.
While confirming current U.S. links with eight nations, Iran may not have forgotten Israel’s diplomatic inroads with two of them.
Major Loss to the UAE
Even those Middle Eastern countries having historical, cordial, and diplomatic ties with Iran are now turning against it. Iran is left with only a handful of supporters, such as Türkiye, Russia, China, and possibly North Korea.
Losses to the U.S. may not be substantial, but nations such as the UAE have suffered damage to their leadership position in the region, air hub status, business standing, and, above all, their image. This is apart from attacks and the immobility of Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports, and damage to iconic structures such as the Burj Khalifa and several hotels.
Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery, with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, has reportedly been attacked. Doha has also faced fresh attacks after earlier incidents in Kuwait.
More Deadly Missiles Ready
Looking at the striking power, success achieved, and time management thus far, one can imagine what may happen when the latest long-range hypersonic and supersonic missiles and drones are deployed by Iran. Needless to say, their range varies from 1,300 km to 1,750 km. It may or may not be true, but some are claimed to be capable of reaching cities in the USA. President Trump has reportedly alluded to this in a speech.
A clip of a long underground tunnel storing such weapons somewhere in Iran has already been released to print and social media, possibly to create psychological impact.
Loss of Ayatollah Khomeini
The assassination of Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khomeini by U.S. forces on 1 March, based on alleged CIA inputs, was no doubt a major success for the U.S., if not for Israel. On the contrary, it was an unthinkable shock and major loss for Iranians, who, after months of civil disobedience, appeared re-united during the recent anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
He had been the political head since 1989 and also held a temporal position similar to that of the King of the U.K., the King of Bhutan, or the erstwhile Chogyal of Sikkim. One does not kill such a high-ranking figure, however controversial, during the holy month of Ramadan.
Firm Commitment in Trying Times
Even as the succession factor remains uncertain and the command structure of the Iranian Army and Air Force weakens, signs of resilience are emerging. Heads of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have decided to talk. The UAE has stated that its territory will not be used for U.S. naval and air attacks against Iran. If this materializes, it would be a major blow to President Trump’s strategy.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports are vital global hubs linking Asia with Africa, Europe, and America. Currently, they are bearing the expenses of over twenty thousand stranded hotel occupants, but this situation cannot continue indefinitely.
Stand of Europe
While Türkiye has openly supported Iran, responses from Egypt, other Muslim-majority countries of Asia and Africa, and Central Asian nations are awaited.
France and Germany have not revealed their positions. The U.K. Prime Minister, however, learning from the Iraqi experience, has cautiously stated that they do not intend to join the offensive “for now.” However, the U.S. is being allowed to use British bases in the Middle East for defensive and limited purposes.
Indian Stand
India took more than 36 hours to convene a CCS meeting, despite nearly 9 million Indians residing across about 10 countries in the region. Thousands are stranded in universities, construction sites, and hotels. India also depends on Gulf crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz for up to 15% of its total requirement.
Prime Minister Modi has spoken to several Middle Eastern leaders. One hopes he also engages with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
India has condemned Iran’s attacks on several Middle Eastern countries and called for de-escalation, regional peace, security, and stability. No statement has been made about the joint actions of Israel and the U.S. or about shelter provided by certain nations. India appears to have little choice but to play safe.
Oil & Air Links Most Vital
Regarding India’s oil requirements, distancing from Russian supply under pressure may prove costly. With supplies through the Strait of Hormuz impacted and no certainty regarding Venezuelan oil, domestic fuel prices are likely to rise. International crude prices may approach USD 100 per barrel. Shortages could emerge, affecting key sectors of the economy.
Moreover, if President Trump is to be believed, the current war may last four to five weeks. How will international trade and flights continue under such trying conditions?
It may not be a Third World War per se, but it appears dangerously close.
