The India-Canada Diplomatic Crisis: A Symptom of Larger Global Shifts?

DIPAK KURMI

Over the past decade, a significant shift has been observed in global migration patterns, with Indians leading the charge in emigrating to countries such as the US, Australia, Singapore, and Dubai. Among these destinations, Canada has emerged as a particularly attractive location for Indian emigrants, especially for Punjabis. In 2014, 38,364 Indians became permanent citizens of Canada, and by 2022, this figure had surged to 118,095. However, as the number of Indians relocating to Canada increased, relations between the two countries have paradoxically hit an all-time low, prompting questions about the deeper reasons behind this diplomatic standoff.

A Legacy of Cooperation, Now Under Strain

Historically, India and Canada have shared a cooperative relationship. Canada played a crucial role in helping India build its nuclear capability, and the large Indian diaspora in Canada helped forge strong people-to-people ties. Yet, the growing rift between the two nations raises concerns about the root causes of this diplomatic fallout, with Indian officials squarely blaming Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the deterioration.

India’s frustration stems from the belief that Trudeau has allowed domestic political needs to override national security concerns and sound foreign policy. In pursuit of the Canadian Sikh vote, Trudeau is accused of pandering to the Khalistani aspirations of a vocal segment of the Sikh diaspora. This political strategy, in India's view, has gone beyond mere pandering—Indian officials charge Trudeau's government with harboring criminals, drug traffickers, and anti-India terrorists. This accusation escalated when Canadian authorities accused Indian intelligence operatives and diplomats of being involved in the assassination of Canadian citizens.

The Spark That Ignited the Diplomatic Storm

The diplomatic spat reached new heights when the US entered the fray, linking the assassination of Canadian Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023 to an alleged similar plot targeting US-based Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The issue has sparked questions about the seriousness of pro-Khalistani activism in North America, especially when viewed through the lens of India's domestic security concerns. The Modi government’s frustration with what it perceives as Western governments’ insensitivity to Indian security issues is understandable, but the diplomatic blow-up has led to severe consequences.

Public Accusations and the Breakdown of Discretion

Two key questions arise from this standoff: Why did Canada and the US choose to go public with such serious allegations, and where does the burden of proof fall? On the first question, India's surprise is palpable. Given the relatively amicable relations it shared with both countries, New Delhi expected these matters to be handled with greater discretion. The Trudeau government’s decision to air accusations of assassination plots on the floor of Parliament appeared to be an attempt to sway public opinion, especially given Trudeau’s precarious political standing at home.

For India, the answer to why Trudeau went public is clear: domestic politics. Trudeau’s Liberal Party has historically sought the support of the Sikh diaspora, a politically influential group in Canada. With elections looming and his popularity plummeting, Trudeau is seen as attempting to shore up his political base by playing up to the Canadian Sikh community, some of whom support the idea of a separate Khalistan.

However, as with any diplomatic confrontation, domestic politics cuts both ways. Just as India has accused Trudeau of exploiting foreign policy for electoral gain, Pakistan has similarly accused Indian politicians of leveraging cross-border terrorism claims for political capital. The optics of this confrontation have, therefore, taken center stage, with each side accusing the other of political opportunism.

The Role of the Five Eyes and the West’s Involvement

What complicates matters further is the role of the "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance, which includes the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. India’s grievances against the Trudeau government now seem to be part of a broader concern about the West’s treatment of India’s domestic security concerns. It is difficult to dismiss the seriousness of the allegations leveled by Canada and the US, which have implicated senior Indian diplomats and intelligence officers.

The inclusion of the US in this diplomatic spat signals a larger shift in India’s relations with the Anglosphere. Traditionally, India has viewed countries like the US, UK, and Canada as allies or partners in its development and its battle against terrorism, particularly in the context of growing Chinese influence and jihadi threats. However, the recent fallout has raised questions about whether this partnership remains as robust as it once was.

Has India’s View of the West Changed?

The Modi government’s handling of these accusations and the rising tensions with the West reflect a potential shift in India’s foreign policy outlook. Mohan Bhagwat, the head of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), hinted at this shift in his Vijayadasami speech, where he accused Western liberal democracies of plotting to stage "colour revolutions" in India, similar to the Arab Spring uprisings. This rhetoric points to a growing suspicion of the West’s intentions towards India, a marked departure from the cooperative tone of previous Indian administrations.

During his tenure, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh frequently reassured the public that "the world wants India to do well." Singh’s foreign policy rested on the belief that liberal democracies, particularly in the West, were supportive of India’s rise, both as a counterweight to authoritarian China and as a bulwark against terrorism. However, the current atmosphere suggests that the Modi government may no longer view the West in the same light.

L'affaire Trudeau and the Global Context

The strain between India and Canada is not happening in isolation. The conflict in West Asia, coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine, presents further challenges to India's relations with the West. The potential for increased US involvement in the Middle East, in particular, raises concerns about the stability of oil prices and the safety of Indian workers in the region. Any disruption in these areas would have severe economic implications for India.

Taken together, these global challenges suggest that the international environment may no longer be as conducive to India's growth and development as it was a decade ago. The frequent criticism of the West by members of the Modi government, as well as figures within the BJP and RSS, points to a crisis of confidence in India’s relationship with Western liberal democracies. L'affaire Trudeau may be the most visible symptom of this broader malaise.

Diplomacy and the Road Ahead

The diplomatic spat between India and Canada is, on the surface, about the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and the broader issue of Khalistani separatism. However, the deeper issues at play suggest a growing rift between India and the West. The Modi government’s frustration with what it sees as the West’s selective concern for its security challenges, coupled with Canada’s and the US’s public airing of sensitive diplomatic accusations, signals a shift in how India views its place in the global order.

As both sides continue to trade accusations and expel diplomats, the road to reconciliation seems difficult. The role of the Five Eyes alliance, Trudeau's domestic political concerns, and India’s increasing wariness of Western intentions all contribute to an environment of mistrust. Whether this confrontation will lead to a long-term rupture in relations or a recalibration of India’s ties with the West remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that diplomacy is more crucial than ever to prevent a complete breakdown in relations and to safeguard the interests of both nations.

(Views are personal. Email: dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)